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Tax Breaks and Direct Payments Provide Biggest Bang for the Buck, Says CBO
Monday, January 26, 2009
10:15 PM


The corporate and individual tax breaks along with direct federal payments to individuals such as  unemployment insurance will have the greatest economic stimulus impact under the House's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (H.R. 1), according to the Congressional Budget Office's latest score released this evening.

The legislation contains three types of stimulus initiatives:

  1. Direct payments to individuals
  2. Tax cuts
  3. Direct or indirect purchases of goods and services by the federal government. (Grants to states and local governments are considered indirect funding.)

CBO concludes that the first two types of transactions would occur fairly rapidly, with 70 percent of the total $248 billion in direct spending getting pumped into the economy by the end of fiscal year (FY) 2010. Similarly, the various federal tax breaks would have most of their effects in FY 2009 and FY 2010.

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However, CBO estimates that only 40 percent of the $358.2 billion in discretionary dollars would be spent by September 30, 2010. This spending lag is attributed in part to the sometimes lengthy federal contracting and regulatory review processes. Based on historical data, further delays might occur on building construction and highway/transit projects since they are usually seasonal in nature. "For example, major school repairs are generally scheduled during the summer to avoid disrupting classes, and construction and highway work are difficult to carry out during the winter months in many parts of the country," the report notes.

With respect to federal programs already in place that receive additional funding, CBO expects that federal and state agencies would "find it difficult to properly manage and oversee a rapid expansion of existing programs so as to spend added funds quickly as they expend their normal resources."

How will the bill affect the budget? After combining the spending and revenue provisions contained in H.R. 1, CBO concluded that the legislation would increase the federal deficit by $169 billion over the remaining months of FY 2009, by $356 billion in FY 2010, by $174 billion in FY 2011, and by $816 billion over the FY 2009-2019 period.

Across the Capitol, Senate lawmakers are preparing to consider their economic stimulus package this week. On Jan. 23, the Senate Appropriations Committee released a summary of the discretionary spending provisions, which call for roughly $7 billion more than the House version. The Senate Finance Committee is expected to propose adding an additional $70 billion to the package's overall price tag via another year-long "patch" to the alternative minimum tax. Both committees are expected to mark up their sections of the stimulus bill this week.


 

© Copyright Capitol Hill Reports, Inc. (2009). No claim to original government works.

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